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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Strategy DIBB |  Operations Kepner-Tregoe |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | DIBB helps clarify target groups, value, goals, and priorities by making the logic behind a decision explicit. It captures results as a DIBB document, belief list, bet list, and learning report. | For a disturbance that's hard to pin down, the method cleanly separates problem, cause, and decision. It reduces mixing when symptoms allow several interpretations. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 1-2 h | 2-8 h | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 | 2-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | DIBB document, Belief list, Bet list, Learning report | Problem Analysis, Decision Analysis, Risk Plan | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tags1 shared | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | StrategyDecisionAssumptionsHypothesis | Problem solvingRoot causeDecisionOperations | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |