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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Innovation Design Thinking |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Business Strategy Business Model Canvas |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | For complex user problems with an uncertain cause, the method connects observation, interpretation, and experiment into a learning cycle. It keeps the focus on real needs and avoids premature solution language. This produces robust decisions for product and service. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | The Business Model Canvas condenses a business model to its key building blocks and assumptions. It makes variants quickly comparable and reveals gaps before validation or implementation begins. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 1 Tag bis mehrere Wochen | 45-90 min | 1-2 h |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 4-10 | 2-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Problem Statement, Prototype, Test Learnings | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Business Model Canvas, Assumption List, Business Hypotheses |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | InnovationPrototypeResearch | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | Business modelStrategyValueInnovation |