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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Decision Tree |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | For decisions with follow-on paths and dependencies, a linear comparison is often not enough. A Decision Tree shows how options branch under conditions and which consequences hang on each branch. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 30-90 min | 30-90 min | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-6 | 1-10 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Decision Tree, Option Map, Assumption List | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | DecisionTreeOptions | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | SensemakingDecisionRationale |