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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Decision Tree |  Operations MORT Analysis |  Operations Family Tree Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | For decisions with follow-on paths and dependencies, a linear comparison is often not enough. A Decision Tree shows how options branch under conditions and which consequences hang on each branch. | For a safety-relevant event or a system with high protection requirements, the method examines where controls failed. It exposes both technical and organizational gaps. | For a series of incidents with a similar pattern, the method arranges individual events as branches of a common origin. It makes visible which conditions keep recurring. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 30-90 min | Mehrere Tage bis Wochen | 2-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-6 | 2-6 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Decision Tree, Option Map, Assumption List | MORT Worksheets, Findings per Branch, Corrective Actions, Systemic Recommendations | Family Tree Diagram, Pattern Notes, Systemic Measures |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | DecisionTreeOptions | Root causeSafetySystemicIncident | Root causePatternsIncidentSystemic |