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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Decision Tree |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Product Discovery MVP Test Matrix |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | For decisions with follow-on paths and dependencies, a linear comparison is often not enough. A Decision Tree shows how options branch under conditions and which consequences hang on each branch. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | When several minimal variants compete to answer the same question, it makes comparing and choosing between them cleaner. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a Test Matrix and a Test Plan. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 30-90 min | 45-60 min | 45-75 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-6 | 2-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Decision Tree, Option Map, Assumption List | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Test Matrix, Test Plan |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | DecisionTreeOptions | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryOptions |