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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Cynefin Workshop |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When problems are unclear, chaotic, or only seemingly familiar, standard recipes fall short. A Cynefin Workshop sorts situations by the nature of their problem and connects them with matching action logic. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 60-180 min | 10-30 min je Item | 1-4 h or multiple rounds |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 4-20 | 1-8 | 4-12 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Cynefin Map, Domain-specific Actions, Sensemaking Notes | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ComplexitySensemakingDecision | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | EstimationExpertsForecasting |