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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Cynefin Workshop |  Knowledge Modeling IBIS |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When problems are unclear, chaotic, or only seemingly familiar, standard recipes fall short. A Cynefin Workshop sorts situations by the nature of their problem and connects them with matching action logic. | IBIS structures thinking about complex questions as a sequence of issues, ideas, and arguments. The method keeps discussions open without forcing them into premature consensus. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 60-180 min | 1-3 h | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 4-20 | 2-8 | 1-10 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Cynefin Map, Domain-specific Actions, Sensemaking Notes | Issue Map, Positions, Argument Notes | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ComplexitySensemakingDecision | RationaleKnowledgeDecision | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight |