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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Cynefin Workshop |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When problems are unclear, chaotic, or only seemingly familiar, standard recipes fall short. A Cynefin Workshop sorts situations by the nature of their problem and connects them with matching action logic. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 60-180 min | 45-90 min | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 4-20 | 2-8 | 1-10 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Cynefin Map, Domain-specific Actions, Sensemaking Notes | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ComplexitySensemakingDecision | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight |