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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |  Systems Thinking Soft Systems Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | Soft Systems Methodology helps explore unclear or politically charged problems systematically. Instead of forcing a quick answer, the method builds a shared understanding of perspectives and room for action. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 2-6 h | 30-90 min | 0.5-3 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 3-8 | 1-10 | 5-15 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | Rich Picture, Root Definitions, Conceptual Models, Change Agenda |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | Soft systemsComplexitySensemakingSystems thinking |