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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |  Systems Thinking Behavior Over Time Graph |  Systems Thinking Iceberg Model |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. | A Behavior Over Time Graph shows how a metric or observation develops over time. The method makes trends, breaks, and recurring patterns visible that get lost in snapshots. | The Iceberg Model separates visible events from patterns, structures, and mental models. This turns a single observation into a deeper understanding of why a problem keeps recurring. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 2-6 h | 20-45 min | 30-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 3-8 | 1-10 | 2-10 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas | Behavior Over Time Graph, Trend Hypotheses, Key Events | Iceberg Worksheet, Pattern Notes, Intervention Ideas |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality | Systems thinkingPatternsDynamics | Systems thinkingRoot causePatterns |