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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 2-6 h | 45-60 min | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 3-8 | 2-8 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions |