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Criterion
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration for Current Reality Tree
Systems Thinking
Current Reality Tree
A 5 Whys working surface connects an observable problem with evidenced causes, marked uncertainty and concrete countermeasures with ownership.
Operations
5 Whys
Paper illustration for Causal Factor Analysis.
Operations
Causal Factor Analysis
Purposedifferent
When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once.For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description.For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events.
Complexitydifferent
HighHighLowHigh
Timedifferent
1-4 Wochen2-6 h15-30 min2-6 h
Participantsdifferent
6-30 Experten3-82-63-10
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshopWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesCurrent Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention IdeasRoot cause notes, CountermeasuresEvent Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality
Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving
CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline
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