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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Delivery Cost of Delay |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Product Discovery Fake Door Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Helps clarify scope, order, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, constraints, and sequence manageable. The result is captured as a Cost of Delay table and prioritization sequence. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 90-180 min | 1-5 Tage | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 3-8 | Nutzertraffic | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | CoD Table, Prioritization Sequence | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Click Data, Interest Signal, Learning Decision |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | PrioritizationDeliveryEconomicsDecision | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery |