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Criterion
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration of Cost of Delay with its method-specific working model.
Delivery
Cost of Delay
Paper illustration of Leverage Points with its method-specific working model.
Systems Thinking
Leverage Points
Paper illustration for Future Reality Tree.
Systems Thinking
Future Reality Tree
Purposedifferent
When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.Helps clarify scope, order, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, constraints, and sequence manageable. The result is captured as a Cost of Delay table and prioritization sequence.Leverage Points show exactly where interventions in a system produce a disproportionate effect. It draws relationships, patterns, and feedback loops. The result is captured as a leverage map and action strategy.A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation.
Complexitysame
HighHighHighHigh
Timedifferent
1-4 Wochen90-180 minHalf day2-4 h
Participantsdifferent
6-30 Experten3-83-123-8
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshopWorkshopWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesCoD Table, Prioritization SequenceLeverage Map, Action StrategyFuture Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
PrioritizationDeliveryEconomicsDecision
Systems thinkingChangeStrategy
Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange
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