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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Delivery Cost of Delay |  Product Discovery Hypothesis Prioritization Canvas |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Helps clarify scope, order, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, constraints, and sequence manageable. The result is captured as a Cost of Delay table and prioritization sequence. | When many hypotheses compete for attention, it brings order to their learning sequence and importance. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritization canvas and a hypothesis backlog. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 90-180 min | 60-90 min | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 3-8 | 3-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | CoD Table, Prioritization Sequence | Prioritization Canvas, Hypothesis Backlog | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | PrioritizationDeliveryEconomicsDecision | ExperimentsPrioritizationDiscoveryHypothesis | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |