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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Operations Change Analysis |  Operations Family Tree Analysis |  Operations MORT Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | For a deviation after a change, the method isolates the influence of the altered condition. It narrows down which differences are relevant and which are just accompanying noise. | For a series of incidents with a similar pattern, the method arranges individual events as branches of a common origin. It makes visible which conditions keep recurring. | For a safety-relevant event or a system with high protection requirements, the method examines where controls failed. It exposes both technical and organizational gaps. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 45-120 min | 2-4 h | Mehrere Tage bis Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-6 | 2-6 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Change Matrix, Cause Hypotheses, Validation Questions, Action List | Family Tree Diagram, Pattern Notes, Systemic Measures | MORT Worksheets, Findings per Branch, Corrective Actions, Systemic Recommendations |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ChangeRoot causeTroubleshootingComparison | Root causePatternsIncidentSystemic | Root causeSafetySystemicIncident |