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Criterion
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration for Change Analysis.
Operations
Change Analysis
A 5 Whys working surface connects an observable problem with evidenced causes, marked uncertainty and concrete countermeasures with ownership.
Operations
5 Whys
Paper illustration for OODA Loop.
Decision Making
OODA Loop
Purposedifferent
When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.For a deviation after a change, the method isolates the influence of the altered condition. It narrows down which differences are relevant and which are just accompanying noise.For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description.In dynamic situations, decisions become outdated faster than they can be prepared. The OODA Loop holds observing, orienting, deciding, and acting together as a recurring rhythm so reaction does not slide into inertia.
Complexitydifferent
HighMediumLowMedium
Timedifferent
1-4 Wochen45-120 min15-30 min15-60 min je Zyklus
Participantsdifferent
6-30 Experten2-62-61-8
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesChange Matrix, Cause Hypotheses, Validation Questions, Action ListRoot cause notes, CountermeasuresSituation Assessment, Decision Loop, Action Updates
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
ChangeRoot causeTroubleshootingComparison
Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving
DecisionChangeLearningStrategy
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