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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Operations Causal Factor Analysis |  Operations MORT Analysis |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events. | For a safety-relevant event or a system with high protection requirements, the method examines where controls failed. It exposes both technical and organizational gaps. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. |
Complexitysame | High | High | High | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 2-6 h | Mehrere Tage bis Wochen | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 3-10 | 2-6 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Event Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions | MORT Worksheets, Findings per Branch, Corrective Actions, Systemic Recommendations | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline | Root causeSafetySystemicIncident | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality |