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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Operations Causal Factor Analysis |  Operations Family Tree Analysis |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events. | For a series of incidents with a similar pattern, the method arranges individual events as branches of a common origin. It makes visible which conditions keep recurring. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 2-6 h | 2-4 h | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 3-10 | 2-6 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Event Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions | Family Tree Diagram, Pattern Notes, Systemic Measures | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline | Root causePatternsIncidentSystemic | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality |