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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Operations Causal Factor Analysis |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |  Operations 5 Whys |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. | For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 2-6 h | 2-6 h | 15-30 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 3-10 | 3-8 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Event Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas | Root cause notes, Countermeasures |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality | Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving |