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Criterion
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration for Causal Factor Analysis.
Operations
Causal Factor Analysis
Paper illustration for Change Analysis.
Operations
Change Analysis
A 5 Whys working surface connects an observable problem with evidenced causes, marked uncertainty and concrete countermeasures with ownership.
Operations
5 Whys
Purposedifferent
When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events.For a deviation after a change, the method isolates the influence of the altered condition. It narrows down which differences are relevant and which are just accompanying noise.For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description.
Complexitydifferent
HighHighMediumLow
Timedifferent
1-4 Wochen2-6 h45-120 min15-30 min
Participantsdifferent
6-30 Experten3-102-62-6
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesEvent Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective ActionsChange Matrix, Cause Hypotheses, Validation Questions, Action ListRoot cause notes, Countermeasures
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline
ChangeRoot causeTroubleshootingComparison
Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving
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