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Criterion
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration for Bucket System.
Agile
Bucket System
Paper illustration for Wideband Delphi.
Decision Making
Wideband Delphi
Paper illustration for NoEstimates.
Agile
NoEstimates
Purposedifferent
When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.When a large batch of work needs a fast, rough estimate, it sorts items into predefined size buckets. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as a Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, and Split Candidates.A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes.When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules.
Complexitydifferent
HighMediumHighMedium
Timedifferent
1-4 Wochen30-90 min1-4 h or multiple roundslaufend
Participantsdifferent
6-30 Experten3-124-12 Experten2-12
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesBucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, Split CandidatesEstimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus NotesThroughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
EstimationBacklogRelative sizing
EstimationExpertsForecasting
EstimationForecastingFlow
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