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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Agile Bucket System |  Business Strategy Business Model Stress Test |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When a large batch of work needs a fast, rough estimate, it sorts items into predefined size buckets. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as a Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, and Split Candidates. | A Business Model Stress Test checks how well a business model holds up under pressure and headwinds. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a stress-test report and action plan per scenario. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 30-90 min | Half day | 1-4 h or multiple rounds |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 3-12 | 3-8 | 4-12 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, Split Candidates | Stress Test Report, Action Plan per Scenario | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing | StrategyBusiness modelRiskDiagnosis | EstimationExpertsForecasting |