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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking Behavior Over Time Graph |  Systems Thinking System Dynamics Simulation |  Systems Thinking Wardley Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | A Behavior Over Time Graph shows how a metric or observation develops over time. The method makes trends, breaks, and recurring patterns visible that get lost in snapshots. | System Dynamics Simulation makes assumptions about time, delay, and feedback testable through experiments. It draws relationships, patterns, and feedback loops. The result is captured as a simulation model and scenario reports. | Wardley Mapping makes visible where an offering stands today and where it can evolve. The method connects user need, value chain, and evolution stages into a strategic basis for platform, build, or buy decisions. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 20-45 min | Mehrere Tage bis Wochen | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-10 | 1-5 Modellierende, Stakeholder asynchron | 2-10 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Behavior Over Time Graph, Trend Hypotheses, Key Events | Simulation Model, Scenario Reports | Wardley Map, Strategic Options, Evolution Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Systems thinkingPatternsDynamics | Systems thinkingDynamicsSimulationAnalysis | StrategySystems thinkingDynamics |