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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking Behavior Over Time Graph |  Operations MORT Analysis |  Systems Thinking Iceberg Model |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | A Behavior Over Time Graph shows how a metric or observation develops over time. The method makes trends, breaks, and recurring patterns visible that get lost in snapshots. | For a safety-relevant event or a system with high protection requirements, the method examines where controls failed. It exposes both technical and organizational gaps. | The Iceberg Model separates visible events from patterns, structures, and mental models. This turns a single observation into a deeper understanding of why a problem keeps recurring. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 20-45 min | Mehrere Tage bis Wochen | 30-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-10 | 2-6 | 2-10 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Behavior Over Time Graph, Trend Hypotheses, Key Events | MORT Worksheets, Findings per Branch, Corrective Actions, Systemic Recommendations | Iceberg Worksheet, Pattern Notes, Intervention Ideas |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Systems thinkingPatternsDynamics | Root causeSafetySystemicIncident | Systems thinkingRoot causePatterns |