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Criterion
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration of Barrier Analysis with its method-specific working model.
Operations
Barrier Analysis
Paper illustration of MORT Analysis with its method-specific working model.
Operations
MORT Analysis
A 5 Whys working surface connects an observable problem with evidenced causes, marked uncertainty and concrete countermeasures with ownership.
Operations
5 Whys
Purposedifferent
When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.For a risk that can only be managed through multiple layers of protection, the method examines the effectiveness of each barrier. It shows where safeguards are missing, too weak, or fail under real conditions.For a safety-relevant event or a system with high protection requirements, the method examines where controls failed. It exposes both technical and organizational gaps.For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description.
Complexitydifferent
HighMediumHighLow
Timedifferent
1-4 Wochen2-4 hMehrere Tage bis Wochen15-30 min
Participantsdifferent
6-30 Experten2-62-62-6
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesBarrier Inventory, Failure Analysis per Barrier, Action BacklogMORT Worksheets, Findings per Branch, Corrective Actions, Systemic RecommendationsRoot cause notes, Countermeasures
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
Root causeSafetyIncident
Root causeSafetySystemicIncident
Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving
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