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Criterion
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper scorecard with four perspectives, connected objective cards and columns for measures, targets and initiatives.
Business Strategy
Balanced Scorecard
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.Balanced Scorecard translates strategy into a few interconnected perspectives and metrics. It holds impact, steering, and learning together in daily work instead of narrowing strategy down to financial figures.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
HighHighLowMedium
Timedifferent
1-4 WochenHalber Tag bis mehrere Wochen45-90 min45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
6-30 Experten4-122-82-8
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesBalanced Scorecard, Strategic Measures, Initiative MapAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
StrategyMetricsExecution
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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