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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Systems Thinking Wardley Mapping |  Systems Thinking Behavior Over Time Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | Wardley Mapping makes visible where an offering stands today and where it can evolve. The method connects user need, value chain, and evolution stages into a strategic basis for platform, build, or buy decisions. | A Behavior Over Time Graph shows how a metric or observation develops over time. The method makes trends, breaks, and recurring patterns visible that get lost in snapshots. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 45-90 min | 1-3 h | 20-45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 | 2-10 | 1-10 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Wardley Map, Strategic Options, Evolution Notes | Behavior Over Time Graph, Trend Hypotheses, Key Events |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | StrategySystems thinkingDynamics | Systems thinkingPatternsDynamics |