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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  UX Research User Interviews |  Decision Making Force Field Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When teams derive needs only from assumptions and real motives are missing, user interviews give direct access to behavior and meaning. Conversations from the target group's everyday life make patterns, tensions, and open questions solidly visible. | In change initiatives, supporting and restraining forces sit at the table at the same time. Force Field Analysis makes these tensions explicit and shows where change can be pushed forward by strengthening or relieving. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 45-90 min | 30–60 min per interview | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 | 1 participant per interview | 3-12 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Interview Notes, Themes, Insight Summary | Force Field Map, Change Levers, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | QualitativeResearchCustomerDiscovery | ChangeDecisionStrategy |