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Criterion
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration of a Test Card with four fields for hypothesis, test, metric, and success threshold.
Product Discovery
Test Card
Paper illustration of DIBB with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
DIBB
Purposedifferent
When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.The Test Card turns a critical assumption into a testable claim and specifies in advance which result counts as success.DIBB helps clarify target groups, value, goals, and priorities by making the logic behind a decision explicit. It captures results as a DIBB document, belief list, bet list, and learning report.
Complexitydifferent
HighLowLowLow
Timedifferent
1-4 Wochen45-90 min20-35 min1-2 h
Participantsdifferent
6-30 Experten2-81-52-8
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanTest Card with a pre-set thresholdDIBB document, Belief list, Bet list, Learning report
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis
StrategyDecisionAssumptionsHypothesis
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