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Criterion
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for Kepner-Tregoe
Operations
Kepner-Tregoe
A 5 Whys working surface connects an observable problem with evidenced causes, marked uncertainty and concrete countermeasures with ownership.
Operations
5 Whys
Purposedifferent
When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.For a disturbance that's hard to pin down, the method cleanly separates problem, cause, and decision. It reduces mixing when symptoms allow several interpretations.For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description.
Complexitydifferent
HighLowHighLow
Timedifferent
1-4 Wochen45-90 min2-8 h15-30 min
Participantsdifferent
6-30 Experten2-82-82-6
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanProblem Analysis, Decision Analysis, Risk PlanRoot cause notes, Countermeasures
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
Problem solvingRoot causeDecisionOperations
Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving
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