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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Operations Getting Things Done |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | With many open commitments and ideas in daily life, a reliable external storage system emerges. The method relieves the mind so priority and context don't have to compete in memory. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 45-90 min | 1-2 h Setup, laufend | 20–45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 | 1 | Small cross-functional group |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Action Lists, Project List, Review Routine | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | ProductivityPlanningTasksExecution | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning |