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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Delivery Cost of Delay |  Business Strategy Business Model Stress Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | Helps clarify scope, order, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, constraints, and sequence manageable. The result is captured as a Cost of Delay table and prioritization sequence. | A Business Model Stress Test checks how well a business model holds up under pressure and headwinds. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a stress-test report and action plan per scenario. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | High | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 45-90 min | 90-180 min | Half day |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 | 3-8 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | CoD Table, Prioritization Sequence | Stress Test Report, Action Plan per Scenario |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | PrioritizationDeliveryEconomicsDecision | StrategyBusiness modelRiskDiagnosis |