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Criterion
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration of a Business Model Canvas with nine connected compartments, a few notes and symbols for customers, delivery and economic relationships.
Business Strategy
Business Model Canvas
Paper illustration of Business Model Stress Test with its method-specific working model.
Business Strategy
Business Model Stress Test
Purposedifferent
When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.The Business Model Canvas condenses a business model to its key building blocks and assumptions. It makes variants quickly comparable and reveals gaps before validation or implementation begins.A Business Model Stress Test checks how well a business model holds up under pressure and headwinds. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a stress-test report and action plan per scenario.
Complexitydifferent
HighLowMediumHigh
Timedifferent
1-4 Wochen45-90 min1-2 hHalf day
Participantsdifferent
6-30 Experten2-82-83-8
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanBusiness Model Canvas, Assumption List, Business HypothesesStress Test Report, Action Plan per Scenario
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
Business modelStrategyValueInnovation
StrategyBusiness modelRiskDiagnosis
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