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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Operations ALPEN Method |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | With an overloaded day full of too many tasks, a realistic picture of the day emerges. The method connects estimating, deciding, and buffer thinking so planning fits available energy and time. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 45-90 min | 10-20 min daily | 20–45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 | 1 | Small cross-functional group |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Daily Plan, Time Estimates, Review Notes | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | PlanningTime managementProductivityOperations | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning |