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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Growth A/B Testing |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 45-90 min | 1-4 Wochen | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 | 1-6 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Experiment results, Decision log, Learning summary | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |