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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 45-60 min | 10-30 min je Item | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 | 1-8 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions |