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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Product Strategy GIST Planning |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | GIST Planning helps clarify target groups, value, goals, and priorities. It links customer value, product logic, and decision priorities, and captures the result as goals, an idea bank, and a step-project list. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 45-60 min | Wochen bis Monate je Goal | 20–45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 | 3-10 | Small cross-functional group |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Goals, Idea bank, Step-project list, Tasks, Learning reports | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | RoadmapOutcomesPlanningExperiments | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning |