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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 1-3 h | 10-30 min je Item | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-8 | 1-8 | 1-10 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | SensemakingDecisionRationale | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight |