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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |  Operations Causal Factor Analysis |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. | For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 1-3 h | 2-6 h | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-8 | 3-10 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale | Event Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | SensemakingDecisionRationale | CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality |