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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Decision Making Red Teaming |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | For strategic decisions with high reach, agreement and gut feeling are often not enough. Red teaming brings deliberate opposition into the situation and tests where a plan breaks under real counterarguments. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 1-3 h | 45-60 min | 1-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-8 | 2-8 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Challenge Findings, Risk Register, Mitigation Plan |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | SensemakingDecisionRationale | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | RiskDecisionSensemaking |