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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Operations ALPEN Method |  Operations Failure Mode and Effects Analysis |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | With an overloaded day full of too many tasks, a realistic picture of the day emerges. The method connects estimating, deciding, and buffer thinking so planning fits available energy and time. | For a process, product, or service with noticeable failure risks, the method assesses possible failure modes in advance. It directs attention to combinations of occurrence, effect, and detectability. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 10-20 min daily | 2-6 h | 20–45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1 | 3-10 | Small cross-functional group |
Formatdifferent | Async | Async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Daily Plan, Time Estimates, Review Notes | FMEA Table, Risk Priority, Mitigation Actions | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | PlanningTime managementProductivityOperations | RiskQualityOperationsRoot cause | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning |