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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Operations ALPEN Method |  Business Strategy Business Model Stress Test |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | With an overloaded day full of too many tasks, a realistic picture of the day emerges. The method connects estimating, deciding, and buffer thinking so planning fits available energy and time. | A Business Model Stress Test checks how well a business model holds up under pressure and headwinds. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a stress-test report and action plan per scenario. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 10-20 min daily | Half day | 20–45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1 | 3-8 | Small cross-functional group |
Formatdifferent | Async | Async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Daily Plan, Time Estimates, Review Notes | Stress Test Report, Action Plan per Scenario | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | PlanningTime managementProductivityOperations | StrategyBusiness modelRiskDiagnosis | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning |