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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Operations ALPEN Method |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | With an overloaded day full of too many tasks, a realistic picture of the day emerges. The method connects estimating, deciding, and buffer thinking so planning fits available energy and time. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 10-20 min daily | 45-60 min | 20–45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1 | 2-8 | Small cross-functional group |
Formatdifferent | Async | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Daily Plan, Time Estimates, Review Notes | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | PlanningTime managementProductivityOperations | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning |