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Criterion
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration for ALPEN Method
Operations
ALPEN Method
A 5 Whys working surface connects an observable problem with evidenced causes, marked uncertainty and concrete countermeasures with ownership.
Operations
5 Whys
Paper illustration for Root Cause Analysis.
Operations
Root Cause Analysis
Purposedifferent
When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.With an overloaded day full of too many tasks, a realistic picture of the day emerges. The method connects estimating, deciding, and buffer thinking so planning fits available energy and time.For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description.When a problem keeps recurring and the cause stays unclear, the method exposes the underlying mechanism. It separates symptom, guess, and robust explanation from one another.
Complexitydifferent
HighLowLowMedium
Timedifferent
1-4 Wochen10-20 min daily15-30 min1-4 h
Participantsdifferent
6-30 Experten12-63-8
Formatdifferent
AsyncAsyncWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesDaily Plan, Time Estimates, Review NotesRoot cause notes, CountermeasuresProblem Statement, Cause Hypotheses, Confirmed Causes, Action Plan
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
PlanningTime managementProductivityOperations
Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving
Root causeProblem solvingQualityIncident
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