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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Agile Affinity Estimation |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Product Discovery Fake Door Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When many tasks need to be classified quickly, it sorts them by perceived effort and similarity. It reduces the effort of fine-grained estimation for large volumes. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 30-90 min | 1-5 Tage | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 3-12 | Nutzertraffic | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Affinity Size Map, Grouped Estimates, Unclear Items | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Click Data, Interest Signal, Learning Decision |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery |