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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Agile Affinity Estimation |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When many tasks need to be classified quickly, it sorts them by perceived effort and similarity. It reduces the effort of fine-grained estimation for large volumes. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 30-90 min | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 3-12 | 2-6 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Affinity Size Map, Grouped Estimates, Unclear Items | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |