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Criterion
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration for Affinity Estimation.
Agile
Affinity Estimation
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for Bucket System.
Agile
Bucket System
Purposedifferent
When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.When many tasks need to be classified quickly, it sorts them by perceived effort and similarity. It reduces the effort of fine-grained estimation for large volumes.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.When a large batch of work needs a fast, rough estimate, it sorts items into predefined size buckets. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as a Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, and Split Candidates.
Complexitydifferent
HighMediumLowMedium
Timedifferent
1-4 Wochen30-90 min45-90 min30-90 min
Participantsdifferent
6-30 Experten3-122-83-12
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesAffinity Size Map, Grouped Estimates, Unclear ItemsAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanBucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, Split Candidates
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
EstimationBacklogRelative sizing
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
EstimationBacklogRelative sizing
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