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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Operations A3 Problem Solving |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Operations Kepner-Tregoe |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | For a complex deviation with several people involved, the method bundles problem, analysis, and decision onto one page. It creates a shared working space where causes, countermeasures, and follow-up fit together. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | For a disturbance that's hard to pin down, the method cleanly separates problem, cause, and decision. It reduces mixing when symptoms allow several interpretations. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 45-90 min | 1-5 Tage | 2-8 h |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-5 | Nutzertraffic | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | A3 Report, Action Plan, Root Cause Analysis | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Problem Analysis, Decision Analysis, Risk Plan |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | LeanProblem solvingCoachingOperations | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | Problem solvingRoot causeDecisionOperations |