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Criterion
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
A 5 Whys working surface connects an observable problem with evidenced causes, marked uncertainty and concrete countermeasures with ownership.
Operations
5 Whys
Paper illustration for Root Cause Analysis.
Operations
Root Cause Analysis
Paper illustration for Kepner-Tregoe
Operations
Kepner-Tregoe
Purposedifferent
When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description.When a problem keeps recurring and the cause stays unclear, the method exposes the underlying mechanism. It separates symptom, guess, and robust explanation from one another.For a disturbance that's hard to pin down, the method cleanly separates problem, cause, and decision. It reduces mixing when symptoms allow several interpretations.
Complexitydifferent
HighLowMediumHigh
Timedifferent
1-4 Wochen15-30 min1-4 h2-8 h
Participantsdifferent
6-30 Experten2-63-82-8
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesRoot cause notes, CountermeasuresProblem Statement, Cause Hypotheses, Confirmed Causes, Action PlanProblem Analysis, Decision Analysis, Risk Plan
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving
Root causeProblem solvingQualityIncident
Problem solvingRoot causeDecisionOperations
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